A difficult task ahead for the Conservatives

The full panoply of pomp and circumstance was on show for the first King’s Speech since 1951, which brought a warm tribute to the late Queen Elizabeth from her successor for her “legacy of service and devotion to this country”. 

During her lengthy reign, she made the journey along the Mall to Westminster for the State Opening of Parliament more than 65 times until age and infirmity made this too onerous. She ushered into law some 1,400 Acts. It is a measure of the legislative fixation of our politicians that the Government could find another 20 Bills for the King to read out to begin what will be the last full session of the current Parliament.

Whether they amounted to a coherent springboard for a successful bid for re-election 12 months from now is open to debate. There were some eye-catching proposals that will appeal to traditionalists, especially in the criminal justice field.

Targeting knife crime, cracking down on mobile phone thieves, and ensuring tougher sentences for the worst criminals will play well with voters. Plans to encourage the revival of the North Sea oil and gas industry and take a more pragmatic approach to the removal of carbon from the energy mix will also resonate with the public. It opens an important gap with Labour, not so much over ambitions to achieve net zero but over the timing.

A good deal of the programme involves future-proofing against expected innovation, such as the Bill to support the development of self-driving vehicles, new rules for digital markets and data protection laws.

But other measures, while having some merit on their own, do not fit comfortably into any identifiable overarching narrative. 

The Football Governance Bill, for instance, feels somewhat out of place. Is it really the Government’s business to be setting up a football regulator? It may appeal to season ticket holders and regular spectators, but is hardly a pressing priority for most people. 

The same could be said about the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, which aims to create a smoke-free generation by restricting the sale of cigarettes. However, this fits with the Prime Minister’s desire to look to the long term.

To that end, there are areas where radical reform is still needed, notably in the NHS, to put healthcare on a sound footing for future generations. There was nothing, either, about reforming the benefits system, though some measures are expected in the Autumn Statement later this month.

Other measures, such as home ownership reform – stopping short of scrapping leasehold or capping ground rents – partially fulfil promises contained in the 2019 Tory manifesto. A Media Bill to repeal Section 40 of the Crime and Courts Act 2013, a post-Leveson threat to newspapers that could have a chilling effect on press freedom, will be welcomed in the industry.

Unlikely though it may seem after 13 years of Conservative-led government, Rishi Sunak is seeking to cast himself as the “change” candidate. He told MPs on the opening day of the King’s Speech debate that the new session would bring about that change, though many of the Bills may not survive before a general election is called.

The upcoming Autumn Statement, together with the Budget in March, now take on even greater importance for the Government as it tries to turn public opinion around in the run-up to the election. The outcome will be determined by how people feel about themselves, the economy and the country. Inflation is on its way down and should have fallen considerably by this time next year.

Better than expected revenues may yet give the Chancellor scope for tax cuts, though further international shocks could change all calculations. Real incomes have been rising and the Government’s decision to use powers to force striking rail, ambulance and border unions to provide a reasonable service over Christmas is a welcome stand after months of industrial blackmail.

Mr Sunak appreciates that many people feel the country needs new direction and he has the difficult task of persuading voters that he is the man to provide it. He has the advantage of being in a position to get things done over the next year that will offer the country clear and unambiguous reasons for returning the Tories to office.