A bold new team, but what is the strategy?

In an era when details of the Budget are leaked, political surprises are few and far between. But David Cameron’s return to the Government certainly stunned Westminster – more so even than when Gordon Brown brought Lord Mandelson into his Cabinet in 2008.

Lord Cameron, who resigned as prime minister and gave up his seat after his Brexit referendum defeat, is replacing James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary while the latter moves to the Home Office. He succeeds Suella Braverman, who was sacked after being accused of stoking tensions surrounding the Armistice Day protests in London.

Such a high-profile and unexpected reshuffle at least distracted attention from the dismissal of Mrs Braverman. From a communications point of view, trumping one big story with an even bigger one is a tactically astute way of dealing with an immediate presentational issue. 

But what is the strategy behind it? What is Mr Sunak hoping to achieve beyond some favourable headlines? There is a risk that reappointing a former leader will look as if he has run out of ideas and Lord Cameron may be dogged by the Greensill affair for which he was criticised after lobbying ministers on behalf of an Australian financier. However, having been prime minister for six years and opposition leader for five, he has a wealth of experience and a network of international contacts. Despite not winning the 2010 election outright, he led a successful coalition with the Lib Dems before securing his own mandate in 2015. 

The seeds of his downfall were planted that year when his promise of an EU referendum was included in the Tory manifesto, not least to see off a populist threat from Ukip. Mr Sunak is facing something similar in that the country is increasingly alarmed by high levels of immigration, both legal and illegal, and extremism. The recent pro-Palestinian marches and the rise of anti-Semitic hatred have brought much of this to a head.

Mrs Braverman articulated many of these concerns, and those who agree with her will be angry that she has been dropped, seeing it as appeasing the Left and deepening Tory divisions.

Mr Sunak must show that this is not the case by adopting many of the causes she espoused but did little about, and Lord Cameron is someone to follow through on this agenda. The former prime minister once promised to cut net migration to “tens of thousands” a year, yet it stands at an all-time record of more than 600,000.

He was also strong in his condemnation of Islamist extremism. In 2015 he set out proposals “to confront and defeat this poison” and reform human rights laws. He added: “We need to put out of action the key extremist influencers who are careful to operate just inside the law, but who clearly detest British society and everything we stand for.”

This is very similar to what Mrs Braverman has been saying and polls suggest a lot of people in the country agree. By sacking the former home secretary, it is important that Mr Sunak does not look as if he has rejected those concerns.

Indeed, the agenda can be pursued but in a less confrontational way by Lord Cameron and Mr Cleverly. Their immediate challenge comes on Wednesday when the Supreme Court rules on whether the policy of removing asylum seekers to Rwanda is lawful. If the Government wins, the first removals need to take place immediately. If it loses, there needs to be a strategy in place for repealing human rights laws that prevent ministers carrying out policies they have been elected to pursue.

Mr Sunak has to show a rationale for the reshuffle beyond the shock factor. In his conference speech last month, he set out his store as the “change” candidate for the election and criticised the failure of his predecessors over 30 years to get things done. Labour questioned how that could be squared with the return of a former leader. 

Moreover, the King’s Speech last week did not suggest a government full of ideas. Next Wednesday’s Autumn Statement is another opportunity to capture the initiative, and with this week’s figures expected to show inflation is down to 5 per cent, the Chancellor may have scope for public sector pay rises or lowering taxes, with welfare cuts now expected.

The other ministerial changes lacked the drama of Lord Cameron’s return but were important nonetheless. Steve Barclay has left Health, opening the way to a settlement with the doctors under his successor Victoria Atkins. 

Mr Barclay, now at Environment, will be tasked with defusing the row over water quality and sewage. Meanwhile, Richard Holden, the new Tory chairman, will have his work cut out readying the party for an election the polls say it will lose. Mr Sunak hopes that his bold reshuffle will help to prove them wrong.