Will the Labour Party’s troublesome factions let it govern?

With more than a quarter of the parliamentary Labour Party voting against a three-line whip, Sir Keir Starmer evidently has a bigger discipline problem on his hands than he realised. Among the 56 MPs voting against the official line on Gaza were eight shadow ministers who have forfeited their front-bench posts as a consequence.

Sir Keir can at least console himself that the rebellion is specific to Middle East policy and not a reflection of a wider disaffection with his leadership, though many on the Left are still not reconciled to it.

By the time Sir Keir comes to form a government should he win the next election, many or all of the rebels will again be available for ministerial office. The Labour leader said he regretted their vote but seemed to sympathise with the reasons.

In many instances these seemed to be linked to the presence of large Muslim populations in their constituencies. The MPs stated they could not, on compassionate grounds, support a policy that stopped short of a ceasefire in Gaza, but pressure from their voters must have had a significant influence.

Jess Phillips, MP for Birmingham Yardley, said: “I am voting with my constituents, my head, and my heart.” Sir Keir’s team said that with a year to the next election he had to act as a prime minister in waiting, requiring loyalty from his party and punishing those who step out of line. 

But the rebellion raises the question of whether he will be buffeted by the party’s various factions on a range of issues. How, for instance, would he handle illegal immigration which, despite the Prime Minister’s determination to overcome this week’s Supreme Court setback, will still be a live issue after the election? Should Labour win, this becomes its problem and yet a good number of its MPs – and those that will be elected – are less than enthusiastic about tougher measures. Will he be able to hold the line on public spending if Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, commits to the Government’s limits? Or will he be in a position to contain the ballooning health and welfare budgets when Labour MPs are always demanding more?

Sir Keir, who has never held ministerial office, will head a relatively inexperienced government, though he can call on some who served in the Cabinet under the last Labour administration. The Gaza revolt is a harbinger of the party management difficulties he will face should he make it to No 10.