The US and China are gearing up for a space war that could render orbit unusable

The US Space Force’s Nov. 8 announcement that it and the US Air Force would soon launch the Air Force’s secretive X-37B space-plane on its seventh mission is a reminder – that space is a potential battleground. Especially if the United States and China ever go to war.

And in space, China is rapidly catching up to America’s military capabilities, just like it is on the sea and in the air. Perhaps most critically, Beijing is developing missiles and satellites that can destroy Washington, DC’s own satellites – and chip away at the US advantage in orbit.

The damage would be global, however. The destruction of a satellite in orbit can scatter thousands of pieces of dangerous debris that threaten every country’s spacecraft until the metal and plastic fragments finally burn up in Earth’s atmosphere.

The People’s Republic of China “continues to develop a variety of counterspace capabilities designed to limit or prevent an adversary’s use of space during a crisis or conflict,” the US Defense Department warned in the latest edition of its annual report on the Chinese military.

The Boeing-made X-37B – in essence, a miniature robotic version of NASA’s long-retired Space Shuttle – isn’t a weapon. It carries prototype hardware into orbit for missions which can last two years or more: unlike the Shuttle the X-37B has a solar power array. Its capable rocket motor and substantial fuel supply, and the fact that it is re-usable, mean that it can and does change orbits frequently, permitting it to appear and disappear unexpectedly.

The 29-foot-long X-37B was formerly a unique advantage for America, but nowadays China has a similar mini-shuttle: the CSSHQ, derived from its designation “Chinese Re-usable Experimental Spacecraft”, which has now flown two missions. But the US is still far the biggest space nation: of the 6,700 satellites in orbit around Earth 4,500 are American and just 600 are Chinese.

US satellites support Pentagon operations at every level. Soldiers navigate by way of handheld GPS and communicate via satellite radio. Pilots drop GPS-guided bombs and fire GPS-guided missiles. Without the GPS system, US nuclear warheads become much less accurate: the system was in fact originally built mainly with nuclear warfare in mind. Surveillance satellites spot targets and provide early warning of enemy missile launches.

No country can match American capabilities in space. Yet. But China is trying: it’s added hundreds of satellites to its space arsenal in just the last few years. “There’s a lot of capability on orbit,” said Brig. Gen. Anthony Mastalir, the commander of US Space Forces Indo-Pacific.

Most ominously, the Chinese are deploying anti-satellite capabilities on the ground and in orbit. They include ground-based lasers and jammers that can blind American satellites and sever their links to controllers on the ground, as well as ground-based missiles and maneuverable satellites that can destroy American spacecraft in orbit.

The maneuverable satellites might be the most dramatic new space weapons. These spacecraft are “dual-use.” That is, they have peaceful uses that mask their military roles. Many of them are “inspection” satellites that ostensibly exist to close in on other satellites in order to diagnose and repair malfunctions.

But all it takes for an inspection satellite to switch from inspecting another satellite to tampering with it, or destroying it, is a different command from its operators on the ground. 

The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a Virginia think tank, projected China would have 200 anti-satellite satellites as early as 2026. During a major space war game two years ago, NPEC concluded the Chinese ASAT craft could quickly disable the roughly three dozen satellites that make up the American GPS system. 

Attacking with little warning in the early hours of a major war, the Chinese could eliminate the Americans’ main method of navigating and guiding precision weapons. And they’d still have enough ASAT craft left over to target the Americans’ spy satellites, too, NPEC warned.

“The PRC’s goal is to become a broad-based, fully capable space power,” the Pentagon explained. After two decades of intensive space development, it’s probably inevitable China will achieve that goal. 

The United States can’t prevent China’s rise as a space power, but it can keep pace. The US Space Force has gamed out likely Chinese war plans in orbit – and has come up with its own plans for countering them. 

Broadly, the plan is to launch more satellites. A lot more. So many, so frequently, that the Chinese can’t possibly blind, jam, tamper with or shoot down all of them. “The future will all be proliferated,” said Derek Tournear, director of the Pentagon’s Space Development Agency. 

But that proliferation depends on multi-ton billion-dollar satellites getting smaller and cheaper, fast – something the US space industry is working on. In the meantime, the Pentagon can equip more spacecraft with sensors for detecting incoming attacks, and mechanisms for defending against them: radio jammers, lasers, even cans of spray paint that could blind the attacking craft’s optics.

And there’s always the option to escalate. If China attacks in space, the United States could counterattack – and target China’s own spacecraft, including its anti-satellite craft. 

That’s the nightmare scenario. A true battleground in orbit: potentially hundreds of satellites spinning out of control, colliding or exploding, scattering many thousands of pieces of destructive debris that could render space unusable by anyone – for decades.