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Wales' Euro 2024 hopes rest on play-offs after draw with Turkey
For 36 glorious minutes, the Welsh dream was alive. Automatic qualification for the European Championship was in the grasp of Rob Page and his players, and Cardiff hummed with the belief that another special night was unfolding under the lights.
Here, at the Cardiff City Stadium, they have grown used to occasions like this over the past decade. It has been a time when expectations have shifted and big players have delivered. In a new era for a team in transition, this could have become a defining moment for the next generation of Welsh footballers.
Then a goal was scored in a different game, almost 1,000 miles away, and the cold hand of reality slapped Wales in the face. Croatia had found the net in their match at home to Armenia. In doing so, they had overtaken Wales in the group. There had been less than 40 minutes between Neco Williams scoring the goal that Wales needed against Turkey, and Croatia rendering it useless.
That is the nature of football at this level and it will sting Wales that they have, over the course of this qualifying campaign, allowed their ticket to Germany to slip through their fingers. They do, at least, still have the play-offs. Next year Wales will face one of Finland, Iceland or Ukraine in a semi-final at home. If they win that, they would then need to beat either Poland or Estonia. The road is long and challenging.
“We will now throw everything into the play-offs,” Page said. “We will be full of confidence. We are a team in progress. It’s going in the direction I want it to.”
Can Wales make it through the play-offs? Those opponents are all beatable, to varying degrees, and Wales are more than capable of playing incisive, attacking football. They certainly did so here, against a Turkey side who have impressed in recent months. Page’s team are always better when they look to attack quickly, searching for spaces early and stretching opposition defences. For them, patience is rarely the answer.
In the first half, especially, the Welsh forwards rattled Turkey with their aggression and speed on the counter. Nathan Broadhead curled wide after six minutes, before Williams scored from a similar angle a few seconds later. The Nottingham Forest full-back seems to save his most thrilling displays for the international stage, and his surging run sliced apart the Turkish back line.
This has been a decade of remarkable success for Welsh football and so much of that has been built on players finding new levels of performance when they pull on the red shirt. Williams, Joe Rodon, Ethan Ampadu, Connor Roberts: all excel when playing for their country, much like Joe Allen and Gareth Bale had in previous generations. On this occasion, those key players were ably supported by young, a central midfielder of huge promise. The 19-year-old, who plays for Birmingham City in the Championship, snapped into tackles and produced a series of impressive forward passes.
By the end of the opening half, Wales could have been even further ahead. Twice they had strong claims for a penalty, with Johnson going down under two separate challenges by Samet Akaydin, but twice those appeals were ignored. Then, just before the break, the news that every Welshman feared.
A goal for Croatia, and suddenly the atmosphere in Cardiff changed entirely. For a few minutes, it felt like the plug had been pulled. The Welsh players continued to push, despite the turnaround in their fortunes, and Johnson and Ampadu both went close to scoring in the second half. Turkey were always going to have their chances, though, and Wales were soon forced to retreat. Yusuf Yazici struck the equaliser with a penalty, after the slightest of nudges from Ben Davies on Kenan Yildiz.
“I have to be careful what I say,” Page said of the refereeing. “I really can’t get my head around it.”
Wales sought a winner but Croatia’s victory in Zagreb, which was confirmed before full-time in Cardiff, meant it would have counted for nothing. The qualification journey continues.
Draw ends Welsh hopes of automatic Euro 2024 qualification, as it happened
Page reacts
We’re disappointed, but I’ve said to the players, Ben [Davies] said it in the huddle on the pitch, we put in a great performance. I’ve got to be careful what I say, we could’ve had two penalties and it seemed like a soft penalty. Sometimes it goes for you, sometimes it doesn’t.
That level of performance is what we need to do. If we do that when we come back together in March we’ll be okay. I said before the game, to come into this camp still in with a chance of qualification is an incredible achievement.
We’re disappointed we haven’t qualified automatically, but I’m off tomorrow to find out who we’ve got in the draw for the play-off. We’ll get together in March and build on what we saw tonight, and against Croatia.
32mins: Wales 1 Turkey 0
Var check complete - no penalty. Cakir comes off and on comes Man Utd reserve keeper Bayindir comes on.
They make another sub with Yazici replacing Omur in a tactical switch.
Latest update from Cardiff City Stadium
Rob Page, the Wales manager, has not entertained any talk of play-offs this week. But there is no point hiding from the reality of the situation: the play-offs really are the likely destination for Wales, unless the unexpected happens tonight.
How much should Wales fear the play-offs? Well, the semi-final would be at home to either Finland, Iceland or Ukraine. Of those three, Ukraine would surely be the most challenging opponent.
From there, Wales would need to beat either Poland or Estonia.
It’s not easy. But it’s certainly not impossible, either.
Pre-match thoughts from Rob Page
We’re having no talk of play-offs. If we’re talking play-offs, we may as well call the game off. That’s our mentality and attitude. We’re fully focused on the job we’ve got and we don’t want any regrets when that final whistle goes.
We were aware that (play-offs) would be the talking point because of the disappointment of the Armenia game. I addressed that at a meeting with the players and I got Mitch (Ian Mitchell, head of performance psychology) to speak about it as well. We’re not admitting defeat and thinking ‘why not?’ because potentially we can qualify if the other result goes our way.
What I don’t want to do is walk off at the end of the game, the result’s gone for us, and we could have taken charge of it.
Page takes a gamble
Wales have made three changes to the team which drew 1-1 draw with Armenia.
Tom Lockyear replaces the suspended Chris Mepham, while Brennan Johnson and Nathan Broadhead come in for David Brooks and Kieffer Moore, who both drop to the bench.
A bit surprised Daniel James has been left on the bench too.
Preview: Don't mention the play-offs
Having at best hobbled their chances of automatic qualification for the European Championship finals in German with Saturday’s exasperating 1-1 draw with Armenia, Wales must beat Turkey in tonight’s qualifier in Cardiff and cross their fingers that Croatia somehow fail to beat Armenia in Zagreb this evening to secure a top-two spot in Group D.
Wales have already guaranteed a play-off place in March but it is not a path Wales wish to tread and Page has banished all talk of relying on that route before the game at Cardiff City Stadium. “We’re having no talk of play-offs,” the head coach who took them to Euro 2020 and the 2022 World Cup said. “If we’re talking play-offs, we may as well call the game off on Tuesday. That’s our mentality and attitude. We’re fully focused on the job we’ve got and we don’t want any regrets when that final whistle goes.”
Wales had automatic qualification in their own hands before Saturday’s 1-1 draw in Armenia when Page’s side were fortunate to return home with a point. Croatia took advantage by winning 2-0 in Latvia to move into second spot behind already-qualified Turkey.
Luton defender Tom Lockyer is expected to replace the suspended Chris Mepham and make his first competitive appearance since September 2021. Brennan Johnson and Daniel James should also return to sharpen up the attack against opponents who beat Wales 2-0 in June and warmed up for their trip to Cardiff by beating Germany 3-2 in a Berlin friendly on Saturday.
“What we do need, from minute one, is energy,” Page said. “Off the back of their result against Germany and the threat they pose, we have to have energy in that team. This is the first time in a while that we’ve had two competitive games in quick succession.
“We’re not blessed with a pool of players coming in that are not playing too much domestically. There potentially could be changes, or at least coming off the bench and having an impact.”
Vincenzo Montella, who has won both his games as Turkey’s manager after succeeding Stefan Kuntz in September, is determined his side qualify for their third successive Euro finals in style by beating Wales to secure top spot and a place in Pot 1 for the draw.
“We have come all this way to Cardiff prepared,” the former Italy, Roma and, briefly, Fulham striker said. “We have come here top of this group and that is the way we want to finish it. We want to maintain this leadership and we are focused on what we have to do, show our standing and our performance levels.”